Meta is building an experimental prediction markets app internally called “Arena” at Mark Zuckerberg’s direction, aiming to compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, according to The New York Times.
The app would run independently of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger but lean on Meta’s existing audiences to drive downloads. I’d imagine similar to how Facebook constantly throws Threads posts in your face when scrolling in an attempt to get you to download the app.
Unlike competing predictions-market apps, Arena users would not wager real money. The app would instead rely on a digital points system (Zuck Bucks?), according to one source, though Meta has not ruled out eventually allowing real money betting.
Insiders told The New York Times that the predictions app is still experimental, but a top priority of Zuckerberg, and is part of a broader push at the company to create apps based on emerging social behavior online, as opposed to piling all new features into Facebook and Instagram.
If Arena sounds familiar, it’s because Meta has already tried its hand at a predictions app. In 2020, it released Forecast, a standalone app that prompted users to make guesses about the world in the early days of the pandemic that also used a point system instead of real money. However, the company shuttered the app in 2022. (What do I always say? “Meta quits everything too early.”)
I can only imagine the sycophant yes-men that Zuckerberg surrounds himself with…
Mark Zuckerberg: “For my next idea, I want to pioneer the predictions market industry with a standalone app that lets people place bets on the outcome of real-world events.”
Meta Executives: “Brilliant! Revolutionary! I can’t believe no one’s thought of that before! And might I say… nice penis, Mark!”
The prediction market industry has exploded from $50B in combined Polymarket and Kalshi trades in 2025 to over $130B already this year. Senator Richard Blumenthal attacked the plan as Meta “profiting from addiction.” He wrote, “Meta copied slot machines to addict kids to Instagram. Now Zuckerberg is turning his company into a prediction market.” However, to be fair, he should go after Polymarket and Kalshi too. It’s not like Meta invented the predictions market. It’s just copying it.
