Adobe projects US consumers will spend $26.3B online during Prime Day from June 23 to 26, up 9% YoY and enough to make it the largest online shopping event in US history, surpassing the combined Cyber Monday and Black Friday 2025 total. Buy now, pay later is playing a bigger role within that spending, with Adobe expecting BNPL to drive $2.04B, up 5.5% YoY and accounting for 7.8% of Prime Day sales, a sign of underlying budget pressure even as overall demand holds. Shoppers are pulling back-to-school purchases forward, lifting kids' apparel 230% above June's daily average, while big-ticket discounts drive refrigerators up 185% and power tools 155%. eMarketer's own forecast lands slightly lower at $26.03B total including $15.68B on Amazon, which it expects to capture its largest event share since 2019.
