Amazon expects its own delivery network to handle 86.3% of its US packages in 2027, 87.4% in 2028, and 88.7% in 2029, according to an internal planning document reviewed by Business Insider. The forecast runs ahead of what the company projected earlier, which had first-party delivery at 83.8% in 2027 and 85% the year after.
The last time that Amazon publicly disclosed that figure was in 2023, when it said it delivered over two-thirds of its own packages in the US. So roughly 70%? Technically “over two-thirds” could be 80%, but I’d imagine they would’ve chosen a different fraction if so.
Amazon told Business Insider that the internal projections shouldn’t be interpreted as finalized plans, which is fair, but it’s also obvious that Amazon is moving quickly towards an almost entirely self-fulfilled delivery model. So whether or not the projections themselves are entirely accurate doesn’t change the trajectory.
This is why couriers like UPS, FedEx, and USPS have been pivoting their business models away from servicing Amazon packages. Why prioritize a client that’s actively building a competing delivery network meant to eventually replace you anyway?
- In April, after much negotiation, USPS and Amazon reached a deal to reduce Amazon’s package volume by 20% instead of the more than 67% originally planned. USPS is now seeking lower volume with higher margins.
- In January 2025, UPS announced plans to cut its business with Amazon by more than 50% by the second half of 2026 to focus on smaller, more profitable clients, a plan that it’s followed through on.
- Amazon and FedEx cut residential delivery ties in 2019, but the two companies partially reconciled in 2025 to handle large package deliveries, though nowhere near previous volume.
So while Amazon still strategically works with all three companies, the handwriting is on the wall that it aims to control more of its delivery destiny in the future, and that the Amazon package pie will be shrinking for USPS, UPS, and FedEx.
